Handballs and Semi-finals

Kind of ironic that both Germany's Mueller and Uruguay's Suarez basically got the same punishment for their handballs. Both miss the semi-final, Suarez also played the whole game in the quarterfinal as Mueller did.

Before the Semi Final against Spain

Two days before Spain. Germany looked strong against Australia, England, and Argentina. Not so much against Ghana or Serbia after the missed penalty. In all matches with a strong performances Germany scored an early goal, in the others they did not.

The German team had a clear tactical plan against both England and Argentina and executed it well. However who knows how the England game ends if the Lampard goal stands? Joachim Loew is making a very strong case for coach of the tournament whether they reach the final or not. The German side will again play 4-2-3-1. No need to change what works.

• Goalie: Manuel Neuer. The Argentina game was really the first without clear mistakes, except for one bobbled sharp cross on the ground. Many good saves so far. The England game was both his best (Klose's goal, save against Gerrard) and his worst (England goal, Lampard's two shots). Overall solid so far no need for a change.
• Defense Right: Philip Lahm. Consistently very strong level of play. Good both defensively and going forward. Will need to play with a different player in front of him against Spain. Clearly one of the best at the position in this World Cup.
• Defense Center: Per Mertesacker. Strong against Argentina, won most of his tackles. Weak point no more.
• Defense Center: Arne Friedrich. Very consistent and good. Also won most tackles. Nice for him to get the goal, a goal anyone could have scored after Schweinsteiger's run.
• Defense Left: Jerome Boateng. Weaker side of the German defense both against England and Argentina. Not as good as the three other defenders against Argentina. Jansen came in against Argentina and might be an alternative against Spain. If Germany looks bad against Spain, the German left is likely the reason why. I expect Villa to mainly come from Spain's right to exploit this.
• Midfield Defense: Bastian Schweinsteiger. Best German player so far in this tournament. Very strong defensively and offensively. A good analysis of his game against Argentina is here. He also tried quite often (at least three or four times) to take a shot from distance but these were either blocked or off-target. But this remains the only part of his game to improve.
• Midfield Defense: Sami Khedira. Leaving aside team chemistry issues, I still prefer Ballack for this spot. Khedira has worked a lot on the field and has improved his tackling throughout the tournament. Yet, there still is the occasional mistake on defense and missed chances on offense. Solid to good so far without being anywhere near Schweinsteiger in importance for the team.
• Midfield Offense: Mesut Oezil. Quiet game against Argentina. Was not involved in many good attacking plays until the end. Had only occasional flashes of brilliance with room to improve against Argentina. If Germany does well against Spain, expect a better game from Oezil. Maybe this style results in his remarkable runs setting up late goals in both games against England and Argentina. If so I take it. Showed against Ghana that he will take responsibility late if needed and scored. Might be necessary against Spain.
  
• Midfield Offense Right: Thomas Mueller. He is an interesting player in that he often has a fairly quiet game but then erupts brilliantly on offense. Hardly touched the ball for his goal, behind him were about three other German players who could have scored as well. Great scene setting up Klose in the first half after a Heinze misplay. Extremely dangerous on the German counterattacks because he is very unpredictable but often right on where to go and pass. Can't play because of yellow cards. Loew mentioned that either Trochowski or Kroos will play. My bet is Trochowski. Kroos might come on later if needed, i.e. if Germany is behind. If so, Trochowski needs to pass more quickly than in the past.
• Midfield Offense Left: Lukas Podolski. Played very strong against Argentina. Often helped on defense, and it was needed. Again had many shots from range, all off-target. If Schweinsteiger and Podolski had brought half their shots on target, Germany could have scored more. I also have a feeling that Casillas can be beat this way, he is strong one on one, but might bobble a shot from range now and then. But please hit the target. Great goal against England, great pass to Klose against Argentina.
• Striker: Miroslav Klose. Very strong game against Argentina but not because he scored two goals. Scored a goal that was nearly impossible to miss and one when the game was already over, albeit the latter with great technique. Missed another great chance in the first half. Covered a lot of ground on the field often helping on defense. Showed against England how strong a passer he can be, brilliantly setting up both the second and fourth goal.

So my prediction is Trochowski will play instead of Mueller. Oezil will likely be more important if Germany is to win. Germany's left side is still the weak point in its defense, expect Spain to use it. We will still see Germans shoot from distance, if Germany wins likely one of these will result in a goal. If Germany is behind at half, expect Kroos to come in first, either for Trochowski or Khedira. If they are behind late expect Gomez for Boateng. If ahead by one goal perhaps Kroos for Oezil, since Kroos is stronger on defense.

Referee: Victor Kassai (Hungary). Strong tournament so far. Here is a good article about his most recent game (Ghana-USA, round of 16).